Fresh informations

Brandon Wendell discusses a different method for analyzing price action.
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All currency trading is done in pairsWhen it comes to forex trading, one of the basic concepts is that of currency pairs. All currency trading is done in pairs. You must always be long on one currency and short on the other. This is essentially because rather than actually "trading" currencies, you are actually speculation on how one performs against the other.In forex trading, currency pairs like euro/dollar and dollar/yen are the basis of the market. When you are "buying" euro in the above pair, you are "selling" dollar. At the same time, it is also possible to "buy" the dollar in the dollar/yen pair, because in that case you are "selling" the yen.Currency pairs each represent separate transactions.
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Fed rate cut affects currency tradingToday’s expected Fed rate cut is already affecting currency trading on the FX market. Forex trading strategy should take into account today’s Fed decision, and then listen carefully to the language accompanying the decision in order to prepare for the future. Reuters reports on the Fed rate cut:

"At this stage, with the market almost fully pricing in the move and looking for an additional two cuts by mid-2008, this result could lend the dollar some degree of support if the Fed does not indicate future easing is in the cards," JP Morgan said in a research note.
 
"There is significant uncertainty around possible Fed language, though we remain short dollar versus European FX in general."

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Sterling moving forward in currency tradingThe sterling is moving ahead, touching new highs earlier, in currency trading on the FX market. The U.K. pound is gaining in forex trading, mostly due to dollar weakness and interest rate differential. Bloomberg reports on the success of the U.K. pound on the FX market:
“Sterling has continued to be well-supported by ongoing pressures on the dollar,” said Jeremy Stretch, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank Groep in London. “The market has scaled back more exaggerated hopes of rate cuts from the Bank of England.”
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Market settles down to wait for the FOMC decision
The Bank of Japan have bowed to negative stats at last and conceded that the current fiscal year will not see GDP reach 2.1% as forecast. This they now see as being closer to 1.8% reflecting Q1 negative growth, the sharp drop in housing starts and the now expected prolonged slowdown in the U.S.
However, they are bowing but not broken, retaining a forecast of a gradually recovering economy in FY 2009. This is still based on rising production, wages and consumer spending which in turn will fuel demand. Thus the forecast for FY 2009 GDP is back to 2.1%. They see CPI rising by 0.4% in FY 2009. And of course they still maintain the intention of gradually normalizing interest rates based on economic and price conditions. Of course the forecast will remain valid while the U.S. economy springs back into […]

Bank of Japan - no change
It’s month–end with its barrage of data so we’ll get through as much as possible here as briefly as possible.
Australia:HIA New Home Sales leaped higher by 9.9% MoM in September to reverse the languid numbers seen of late and wiped out the 8.6% drop in August. Building Approvals were also higher by 6.8% MoM while Private Sector Credit saw a rise of +1.2% MoM which was above forecasts of +1.0%. The numbers underlines the strength of the economy and also consumer confidence at a time when the market rates the chances of a rate hike at next week’s RBA meeting as a 90% certainty. In spite of this the Aussie has failed to break above the 0.9236 resistance.
Japan:Labor Cash Earnings were forecast to see a +0.2% YoY rise in September. However, no doubt much to the BOJ’s chagrin it dropped by -0.5% to reverse […]

An excerpt from FX-Strategy’s Pro Commentary
 
 Price:                             0.9220

Resistance:
0.9236
0.9273
0.9296
0.9319

Support:
0.9205
0.9180
0.9160
0.9146

Bias:
We need the 0.9236-73 area to cap to generate additional losses else see a rally to 0.9359-66

Daily Bullish:
Following the first decline to the 0.9146 support we have seen a recovery back to the 0.9236 corrective high. Ideally I’d like this to hold but we should allow for a small blip that should still remain below the 0.9271-73 long term target. This represents the break area and only if this gives way will we see additional gains that should move through to 0.9290-0.9319 at least. Break of this are would extend further to 0.9359-66.

MT Bullish:
It certainly looks as if price is planning a direct rally to the 0.9240-73 monthly target. There doesn’t seem too much room on the downside for a correction. Only above 0.9280 extends to 0.9366-0.9437. (29th October)

Daily Bearish:
The first key support at 0.9149 held (with 3 points slippage) and has caused a reversal […]

Australia’s
benchmark interest rate, at 6.50%, is already the highest in the industrialized
world, after New Zealand.
Ignoring the pleas of the Treasurer, the Central Bank of has all but decided to
hike rates even further into the stratosphere at its next meeting.  The country is in a bit of a pickle, since a
booming economy and the consequent inflation seems to demand a rate hike.  At the same time, this rate hike will ensure
that Australia continues to
be on the receiving end of Japanese carry trades, and this is precisely what irks
Peter Costello, Australia’s
Treasurer. In other words, the world’s
massive economic imbalances will only be exacerbated by an Australian rate
hike, but this may be a moot point as far as the Central Bank is concerned.  The Sydney Morning Herald reports:
Instability on global financial markets between now and the
next Reserve Bank board meeting on Melbourne Cup day is seen by economists as
the only force that could stay […]